Kwame Killed Our City

or Why the Pistons Will Have Another Disappointing Season

The Pistons are set to kick off the 2008-2009 season, five years after they won the title in 2004.  It’s been four straight years of underachieving and early playoff exits, yet the Pistons still carry themselves with a swagger that says ‘We’re the best team in the league.’  Why?  What have they done?  Do they know something we don’t?  Winning one title does not give the Detroit the right to carry on the way they have.  Sure, back in 2004 the Stones could turn it on whenever they wanted.   They were a second-half team; they might struggle in the first half, but they would get their act together at halftime, and turn it around, dominate the second half, and win the game.  But they’ve gotten older, everyone around them has gotten younger, and yet the Pistons think they can do the same thing.  Four years of playoff disappointment has proven them wrong, yet they still believe they have what it takes to win. 

Well, I don’t, and here’s why.  Joe Dumars got a lot of credit for putting together the 2004 title team, and for good reason.  That team was one of the best teams the NBA had seen in a long time.  But the NBA has become inherently an individual sport, as evidenced by the Jordan teams of the 90s, and now Kobe, Shaq, Wade, and LeBron.  These guys are X-factors that can take over a game at a moment’s notice, hitting clutch shots and playing shutdown defense.  The Pistons don’t have a guy like that, and it hurts them.   They need a pure scorer, one who can take over late in games; a guy who can put them over the top.

(Note:  Carmelo Anthony or Dwyane Wade could have been this player for the Pistons.  Instead, Dumars drafted Darko with the #2 pick.  Until this offseason, this was just about the only knock against him.)

Yet, despite all this, Dumars has stood pat for the most part.  Despite losing to LeBron’s Cavaliers in 2007, when he took over in the 4th quarter and overtime of game 5, scoring 29 points, Dumars didn’t go out and try to get a pure scorer.  Instead, he started the 2007-2008 season with essentially the same team.  And after losing to (nay, getting dominated by) the Celtics, Dumars kept the team intact once again.  The only significant offseason moves were firing Flip Saunders (I agree with this, just not with the coach he hired.  More on this in a moment.), and signing Kwame Brown. 

Detroit already tried a meaningful relationship with a guy named Kwame (see Kilpatrick, Mayor), and it was an abomination.  This relationship won’t turn out any better.  Kwame Brown is one of the laziest, softest, and lamest big men in the game.  He’s missed 145 career games due to injury, and is probably the worst #1 overall pick since Michael Olowokandi.  His career averages are 7.2 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.  And he positively shrinks in big moments.  This is not the guy I want seeing crunch-time minutes in a crucial playoff game.  And if he can’t perform in that situation, then why did the Pistons sign him?  Their biggest problem over the last three years has been relying on a reserve tank that just isn’t there anymore and wilting when the game is on the line.  Yet they go out and overpay for one of the most unclutch (yes, I just made that word up) players out there.  Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, does it? 

This Pistons team is old, folks.  There’s no way around it.  The average age of the starters is 31.5 years old.  By comparison, the Celtics starters average 28 (remember, people called this team old during the playoffs last year), and the Cavaliers average just 24.5 years old.  The Pistons are senior freaking citizens!  Dice and Sheed are 34, Chauncey is 32, and Rip is 30.  Tayshaun is the only starter under 30, and he’s 28.  They need an injection of some youth and enthusiasm in a hurry.  Sure, they’ve got some young bench talent, like Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell, but until the core group retires or is traded, they will receive the brunt of the playing time.    

Speaking of enthusiasm, it seems as if this team has just been going through the motions lately.  And by doing so, they make stupid mistakes.  Chauncey is not an elite point guard anymore.  His assist-to-turnover ratio has been steadily slipping since 2004, and he launches ill-advised shots at the worst possible times.  Sure, when he was younger and he buried those shots he was vindicated, but heaving 30 footers with 19 seconds on the shot clock is not an ideal shot under any circumstances.

Over the last five years, as Rasheed Wallace goes, so go the Pistons.  Well, he’s finally gone downhill in a bad way.  As long as he’s still around, it’s only a matter of time before the rest of the team tumbles down the hill with him.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Sheed.  I just think his time in Detroit has come and gone.  When the Pistons traded for him in 2004, I was one of the first to declare that they would win the title that year.  Lo and behold, they did.  (Before you think I’m calling myself the next Nostradamus, keep in mind that I’m about 4-57 in picking major sports champions over the last ten years.  So there.)   But Sheed’s act is tired.  He’s a whiner, and while that may have been endearing and a sign of intensity and caring back in 2004 and 2005, now it’s just annoying.  And he’s got the rest of the team doing it.  Fans and teams around the league hate how much the Pistons complain about calls.  Based on the players’ reactions over the last five years, I think they believe they haven’t committed a single foul over that span. 

My solution?  Joe Dumars should have packaged Sheed and Chauncey and gotten out of them what he could.  Baron Davis was available this offseason.  So was Elton Brand.  Both of them would have been huge upgrades at the one and four positions.  Did you see how Baron Davis single-handedly willed his team to a series win over the heavily favored Mavericks two years ago?  The guy’s a beast.  I’m sure that trade would never have happened straight-up, but as a general manager trying to put a championship-caliber team on the floor, don’t you have to at least entertain trade offers for the two players most responsible for killing your team over the last three years? 

Michael Curry has been a fine assistant coach, with a decent track record.  But shouldn’t his introduction to the big time be for a lower caliber team?  To put it another way, shouldn’t the Pistons have gone out and gotten a premier coach?  Remember this:  the Pistons won a title in 2004 with Larry Brown, a Hall-of-Famer in both the NBA and NCAA, and the only coach to win titles in both leagues.  He also took them to the NBA Finals the following year, ultimately losing in seven games to the Spurs, who are a modern dynasty.  After he left to go to the Knicks (This was the reason he sleepwalked through the 2005 playoffs, because he was so distracted by the media saga surrounding the NY job.  Had he been wholeheartedly in it for the Pistons, they probably repeat.), Dumars hired Flip Saunders, a career .485 coach.  The players never really played for Flip.  You could see it in their demeanor.  They thought after winning a title and barely losing in seven games the next, that Bugs Bunny could coach the team and they would win.  They never had respect for Flip, and it showed. 

So why are they going to respect Curry?  Truth is, they probably won’t.  The cocky attitude and false sense of entitlement that plagues this Piston team will continue, unless Joe D hires a coach that can bring them back to earth.  That said, who should they have hired?  The answer is obvious.  Bill Laimbeer.  One of the most intense individuals on the planet, and physically imposing as well, he’d be a perfect fit.  Lamb is legendary in Detroit, and he’s one hell of a coach as well.  Granted, I know it’s the WNBA (I say this because it’s a totally different game; I’m not going to get into the girls vs. boys debate here), but the man’s won three titles in five years!  He’s got a stellar track record, he commands respect, and he’s been there before, on the floor and in the trenches.  As a key member of the two-time title winning Bad Boys, he knows what it takes to win a championship.  Plus, he played with Joe Dumars.  Why this hasn’t happened yet is beyond me.  Michael Curry?  Really?

So what does this all mean for the 2008-2009 Detroit Pistons?  Another 50 win regular season, maybe even a Central Division title, and another frustrating playoff exit.  This team has hit its ceiling, and is currently on the way down.  If you really think the Pistons have a chance this year, you’re kidding yourself.  They’re trotting out the same team that has failed to win the last three years.  The only difference between this year and last?  Kwame Brown (laughable, man) and Michael Curry (not really an upgrade, not really a downgrade.  Sidegrade?  Yes, I made that word up, too.)  Oh yeah, and the core of the team is another year older and another step slower.  Anyone who thinks the Pistons are going to accomplish anything of note this season is going to be woefully disappointed.  

Tigers Declawed

or Why 2008 was a Season to Forget

 

Well, the painful Detroit Tigers’ season is officially over.  Ouch.  This was definitely one to forget.  Tiger fans, including myself, were (just about) on top of the world last March, after the Cabrera/Willis deal.  On paper, the Tigers had an incredible lineup.  Predictions of 1,000 runs, 100 wins, all kinds of crazy ideas.  They didn’t seem so crazy then, but they certainly do now.  Even the pitching staff, on paper, looked decent.  Well, maybe not, but we were able to convince ourselves that it was, if only because we thought the offense would be able to offset any pitching deficiencies that may have been exposed over the course of the season.  Obviously, that didn’t happen.  The Tigers started 0-7, the starters (other than one rookie) never pitched to their potential, the offense as a whole underperformed, and the bullpen imploded down the stretch.  The result was a behemoth limping to the finish line, finally collapsing under its own weight on September 29th, finishing the 2008 season at 74-88, in sole possession of last place in the AL Central.  They hadn’t finished in last place since 2003, when they lost 119 games.  It was their worst record since 2004.  What went wrong?  In a word, everything.  Let’s look in a little more detail at what happened in 2008, why it was a year to forget for Tiger fans, and what we may or may not have to look forward to in the future. 

 

THE LINEUP

 

The Motown Mashers.  Murderers’ Row.  The Bengal Bombers.  Whatever you called them, this lineup looked sick on paper.  Really sick.  Proclamations of 1,000 runs were abound, the World Series title was practically being handed to the Tigers in early March.  Spring Training hadn’t even started, and already the pundits were convinced that Detroit would be World Series champs come October.  Well, it’s October, and the Tigers are sitting at home, watching the Fall Classic on TV.  Ouch.  They came 154 runs away from the 1,000 mark, nearly a full run for each game played.  They batted .271 as a team, good enough for 4th in the AL, but still nearly 30 points under .300.  Not great, considering the composite batting average of the 2008 roster during the 2007 season was .303.  Even with Inge and Sheffield dragging the average down, the 2008 Tigers regulars batted over .300 in 2007.  The Tigers were shut out just 3 times in all of 2007, and the first time was not until June.  However, the ‘New & Improved’ 2008 Tigers were shut out 12 times, including 4 times in their first 12 games.  Not good. 

(Note: in most cases, new & improved is an oxymoron, because if something is new, there’s nothing to be improved upon, and if something is improved, then it already exists and can’t be new.  However, in this case I think it applies because the lineup itself was ‘improved’, and some of the players were ‘new.’  But it’s still a stretch. )

So what happened?  Why was the offense so anemic?    Part of it was the absence of Curtis Granderson for the first month of the season.  He gets the offense going, and his absence was noticeable.  Put it this way:  Granderson finished second in the league in runs scored, despite missing 21 games this year.  In fact, Granderson scored just 6 fewer times than Dustin Pedroia, despite reaching base 37 fewer times.  When Grandy gets on base, he scores, more often than not. 

Some of the offense’s problems could be attributed to the team not gelling right away.  Cabrera finished with a decent season, but got off to a slow start.  He needed time to get used to American League pitchers, and being merely a cog in a high-powered offense, rather than the only good hitter on a poor team.  He was also most likely feeling the pressure to perform after signing a lucrative deal.  Fortunately, he turned it around, becoming the first Tiger to lead the league in home runs since Cecil Fielder, and finishing third in RBI.  Renteria never really adjusted to AL pitching, and finished 62 points below his 2007 average.  Inge, who became the team’s jack of all trades, never found his rhythm or a position to call his own, and his numbers at the plate struggled as a result. 

Another problem was age.  There’s no denying that Sheffield, Renteria, Guillen, and Ordonez are starting to show their age.  Nobody’s old age was more apparent than Sheffield, who in his two years in Detroit has become a shadow of his former self.  It’s obvious the guy has played for 20 years.  His power numbers are down, he can’t get around on the ball as well, he’s hurt all the time, and he grounds out and pops up a lot.  Sure, he was legendary in his glory years, but he’s no longer deserving of an everyday role, even as a DH, and certainly not deserving of a middle-of-the-order batting slot.  Leyland played him nearly every day he wasn’t hurt, usually as the third hitter.  Whether this was out of loyalty or to avoid his destructive behavior, I’m not sure.  But I know the Tigers would have been better served by a different option at DH. 

The final reason for the drop in offense is the unrealistic expectations created by media and fans, and the crushing reality that piles up when a team begins to fail to live up to those expectations.  People looked at this lineup on paper saw incredible talent and high expectations.  What they failed to keep in mind was that half the players in the lineup were coming off career years.  Ordonez, Polanco, Granderson, and Renteria put up astounding numbers in 2007, and everyone expected these to carry over into 2008.  These unrealistic expectations made it seem as if their lower output in 2008 was a failure, but in everyone’s case except Renteria, their numbers were still respectable for a player at their position.  Taken as a whole, the offense underachieved by the standards we all measured them by, whether fair or not.  Once the team started struggling, the media slammed them, fans were outraged, and the players tried too hard to get out of the rut.  It was a vicious cycle, and it resulted in even poorer results. 

 

THE PITCHING STAFF

 

If the lineup underperformed, then the pitching staff took a dump all over the field.  Starters, middle relief, closers; everybody was culpable.  With the exception of one pitcher, everybody on the staff shared some level of responsibility for the atrocity that was Detroit Tigers pitching in 2008.  Only Armando Gallaraga is free from blame.  As a rookie, he posted a 13-7 record with a 3.48 ERA, not too shabby for a rookie.  Had the bullpen not blown leads in seven of his starts, he could have ended with 20 wins.  Beyond this, nobody, not even the ace of the staff, performed above or even near expectations. 

As a whole, the Tigers’ pitching staff ERA was 4.84, good for fourth worst in all of baseball.  I think everybody knew pitching was going to be this team’s Achilles heel, but nobody expected this.  After all, they had Verlander (a solid ace), Rogers (the crafty veteran), Bonderman (a power pitcher with something to prove), Dontrelle Willis (looking for change of scenery to revive his career), and Joel Zumaya (104 MPH!!!).  Whoops.  Verlander was a trainwreck, Bonderman and Zumaya got hurt, Rogers pitched like he was 65, and Willis, well… ouch.  All of this contributed to one of the worst pitching performances we’ve seen in a while. 

Starters

Justin Verlander was 3 years removed from a Rookie of the Year award, 2 years removed from a 19-win season, and just one year removed from the first Tiger no-hitter since the 60s.  Yet his struggles personified this pitching staff, as he stumbled to a 1-7 start with an ERA floating near the 7s.  When your ace is giving up nearly a run an inning, you know you’re in for a rough year.   He wasn’t the only one, though.  Kenny Rogers showed his age, Nate Robertson showed his inability to pitch at the big league level once again.  He isn’t cut out to be a starter in the bigs.  He was the only starter without a winning record in 2006.  His career winning percentage is .426, and his career ERA is 4.90.  In fact, his only winning season is 2004, and since then he’s barely won 40% of his games.  I’m sick of seeing him out there in big-game situations.  He’s not a big-game pitcher, and should be a fifth starter at best.   Zach Miner was good as a starter down the stretch, but doesn’t get off the hook because his bullpen performance was remarkably substellar. 

Dontrelle Willis is another animal altogether.  Perceived as kind of a ‘bonus’ to the Cabrera trade, his best pitching days are obviously behind him.  His stats for 2008 are beyond horrific.  0-2 with an ERA over 9, and 35 walks in just 24 innings.  That’s just not okay for anyone, let alone a former Cy Young candidate.  He’s not even that old, but he’s obviously washed up.  Word on the street is the Tigers are working on his mechanics, and that it’s a complete rebuild.  We’ll see. 

Bullpen

What can I even say about the bullpen, other than that it was terrible?  Completely and utterly terrible.  The bullpen converted just 35 of 63 save chances.  And Todd Jones, Mr. Rollercoaster himself, was a respectable 18-21.  Yes, his ERA was around 5 again, and he was hurt for part of the year, but his performance as a closer was much better than anybody else.  The rest of the team was 17 for 42.  By comparison, Francisco Rodriguez of the Angels converted 62 of the 69 save opportunities he was given this year.  Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 of 41, and Mariano Rivera only blew one of the 40 opportunities he had. 

But it wasn’t just the closers that stunk up the joint.  Middle relief was a sore spot as well.  Countless times this year the Tigers’ starters kept the team in a game, only to have the bullpen flush it down the toilet.  It reached the point where no lead was safe.  At one time down the stretch, the Tigers lost 11 of 12, and had a lead in the seventh inning or later in eight of those games.  That level of bullpen incompetency is unacceptable. 

 

THE DEFENSE

 

We’ve seen that both offense and pitching have contributed mightily to the Tigers’ forgettable 2008 season.  How about fielding?  Could the defensive performance of the position players be any less culpable?  Let’s take a look. 

Only four teams committed more errors than the Tigers this year, and only three had a worse fielding percentage.   These are not good numbers.  Who was the primary cause of the problems?  Or was it a collective effort (or lack thereof)?  The obvious first scapegoat is Renteria, who, in addition to being flaccid at the plate this year, stunk it up in the infield as well, committing 16 errors in 578 chances, for a fielding percentage of .972, well below the league average for shortstops.  Guillen, who bounced around from first to third, committed 14 errors in 277 total chances.  Even Polanco, errorless in 2007, got in on the fun.  He made up for lost time, committing 8 errors this year. 

Now seems to be the time to talk about Brandon Inge.  Yes, his bat is terrible.  It wasn’t always so (he hit 27 home runs in 2006), and I attribute his struggles at the plate mostly to Leyland callously jerking him around, and he was never able to get into a groove.  When you’re not sure what your status on the team is, or where you’re going to play, it’s never good for your psyche, and it showed in Brandon’s case as an offensive atrocity.  But his defense is unbelievable, and I’m incredibly happy to hear that Inja is the third baseman for next year.  He’s hands-down one of the best third basemen in all of baseball.  Sure, he commits errors, but mostly because he gets to balls that nobody else does.  He dives into the stands, makes stabs at balls that would otherwise be surefire doubles or triples, and yes, occasionally boots a ball.  But overall, he’s stellar. 

According to Baseball Prospectus, Brandon’s defense at the hot corner saved 57 runs in 2007.  By comparison, the league average at that position was 18.  In terms of impact, those 39 extra runs saved serve the same function as RBI.  Had Inge been at third for the full season in 2008, how many wins do those 39 runs translate into?  Six? Ten? Eighteen?  How many games did the Tigers lose because of a shot down the line that Guillen couldn’t reach?  Like it or not, this seemingly innocuous move could have cost the Tigers a shot at the playoffs in 2008. Obviously, there was a lot of blame to go around, but this is a severely understated concern.  Everybody loves throwing Inge under the bus, and by doing so, they may have inadvertently destroyed the Tigers chances in ’08. 

 

THE COACHING STAFF

 

Everybody loves Leyland.  He’s a hard-ass, a chain-smoker, and an old-school throwback.  But is he really the right manager for the Tigers?  Obviously Chuck Hernandez and Jeff Jones had to go, considering the Tigers’ pitching woes, but should Leyland have been spared? 

There’s no question that Leyland was a big reason for the 2006 turnaround.  But he’s equally a big reason for the 2008 downturn.  Playing Sheffield, despite horrific numbers, for the whole season.  Pulling Inge off third base and juggling the defensive lineups constantly.  Inexplicably benching players in the middle of hot streaks (Thames, Joyce, Rayburn).  Routinely relying on Fernando Rodney, despite evidence that he’s not ready for prime-time.  Consistently trotting Nate Robertson out in the sixth and seventh innings despite the fact that his effectiveness diminishes exponentially after the fifth.  Dare I go on?  Need I go on? 

Yes, Leyland has helped to bring this team back into glory.  But he cannot escape blame for this abysmal season.  Not when everyone else’s culpability is on trial.  He even had the gall to request a contract extension, just two days after the season ended, beyond the 2009 season.  What has he done to deserve this?  Take away his lone World Series ring in 1997, and what do you have?  A sub-.500 manager with just 5 playoff appearances in 17 seasons.  I know managing the Tigers was his dream job, but he needs to bring the Tigers back to the playoffs in ’09 to justify an extension. 

 

THE 2009 TIGERS

 

So what’s in store for the Tigers next year?  A lot of it depends on the moves Dombrowski makes in the off-season this winter.  I know he’ll shake it up, and it seems like nobody is safe.  Does he trade Maggs, whose trade value will never be higher, for pitching?  How about a pitching fire-sale?  Thames, Rayburn, Joyce, Hessman, and Clete Thomas could all be trade bait.  They’re not picking up the option on Renteria’s contract, and for good reason.  $12 million for .265 and 16 errors is bad fiscal policy.  Ramon Santiago has better range, hit better (albeit in limited capacity) and makes about 1/15th of what Renteria does.  The Tigers are high on Cale Iorg, who may see some limited action next year, but is about 1-2 years away from making the leap.

Shaking up the pitching staff is mission critical and priority number one for Dombrowski this winter.  Only two starters are guaranteed: Gallaraga (whose rookie season was the lone gem of the staff) and Verlander (whose 2008 will be chalked up to an anomaly until further notice).  Beyond that , the status of Bonderman is unknown, Robertson has to go, and whether Willis will ever regain even an iota of his previous form is completely up in the air.  As far as bullpen help goes, I wouldn’t be sad if there was 100% turnover in the bullpen.  Not a single pitcher there impressed me this year.  Zumaya is proving to be an unreliable, injury-prone raw talent with the inability to focus and deliver.  Rodney is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  You never know which one is about to take the mound. 

As far as the lineup goes, we know Inge will be back at third, Cabrera at first, and Polanco at second.  Guillen is moving back to left field, where he played in the beginning of his career.  Granderson and Maggs will round out the outfield.  So far, Dusty Ryan has emerged as the primary catcher, though he may platoon with Dane Sahrdina, and Inge may get a start or two behind the dish as well.  Leyland likes to juggle the lineup, and next year will be no exception.  Santiago is the likely candidate at short, unless a more enticing option presents itself via free agency.  I’d like to see Thames as the full-time DH, because he can be a 40-120 guy if he plays every day, but Leyland doesn’t seem to be too high on the guy.  Matt Joyce and Ryan Rayburn are possible options as well. 

Offensively, the team is fairly solid, and I think they’ll get off to a better start than last year.  But pitching is a complete unknown, and needs only slightly less work than Michigan’s economic plan.  At least we know that Illitch will spend money, and that Dombrowski has a track record of bringing in solid talent.  So now we need to wait out a long, painful off-season.  The players are even more anxious, no doubt counting down the days before they can atone for what was a season to forget.  But for now, all anybody can do is wait. 

The only thing I’m certain of in 2009 is that it can’t be worse than 2008.